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问题及解答

[Exer8-4] Exercise 81 of Book {Devore2017B} P.138

Posted by haifeng on 2020-04-07 08:04:52 last update 2020-04-08 17:45:56 | Edit | Answers (1)

The number of requests for assistance received by a towing service(牵引服务/牽引服務/service de remorquage) is a Poisson process with rate $\alpha=4$ per hour.

  • (a) Compute the probability that exactly ten requests are received during a particular $2$-hour period.
  • (b) If the operators of the towing services take a $30$-min break for lunch, what is the probability that they do not miss any calls for assistance?
  • (c) How many calls would you expect during their break?
     

 

1

Posted by haifeng on 2020-04-08 20:43:51

Let $X_t$ be the number of requests that are received during $t$-hour period. And let $P_k(t)$ be the probability that $k$ requests are received during a particular $t$-hour period.

\[
P_{k}(t)=e^{-\lambda}\cdot\frac{(\lambda)^k}{k!}=e^{-\alpha t}\cdot\frac{(\alpha t)^k}{k!},
\]

here $\alpha=4$. 

(a) For $k=10$ and $t=2$. We have $\lambda=\alpha t=4\times 2=8$.

\[
P(X_2=10)=P_{10}(2)=e^{-8}\cdot\frac{8^{10}}{10!}\approx 0.099262
\]

Hence, the probability that exactly ten requests are received during a particular $2$-hour period is about 0.099262.


(b)

If  the operators of the towing service take a $30$-min break for lunch, the event that they do not miss any calls for assistance is equivalent to the event that there are zero requests during a $0.5$-hour period. That is, in this case,

$\lambda=\alpha\cdot t=4\times 0.5=2$.

Hence, the probability that they do not miss any calls for assistance is

\[
P_{0}(0.5)=e^{-\lambda}\cdot\frac{\lambda^0}{0!}=e^{-2}\cdot\frac{1}{1}=0.135335
\]

 


(c)

By proposition, the expected value of the number of requests during a $0.5$-hour period is $\mu=E(X_{0.5})=\lambda=2$.

That is, we expect 2 calls during for assistance their break.